The Churn Risk tab scores every active, on-hold and pending-cancellation subscription from 0 to 100 and shows you the signals behind each score, so you can act on the subscribers most likely to leave before they do.
Summary cards
| Card | What it means |
|---|---|
| High risk | Subscriptions scoring 70 or above — the strongest combination of risk signals: failed payments, on-hold status, or an already-scheduled cancellation. |
| Medium risk | Subscriptions scoring 40 to 69. Worth watching: usually one meaningful signal, such as a single failed renewal or a manual-renewal subscriber. |
| Low risk | Subscriptions scoring below 40. No significant risk signals detected. |
| MRR at risk | Combined monthly recurring revenue of every high-risk subscription — what you stand to lose if none of them recover. |
The subscriber table
Each row is one subscription, with:
- Subscription — the subscription number, linking to the subscription itself.
- Customer — the subscriber’s name.
- Product — what they subscribe to.
- Status — Active, On hold, or Pending cancellation.
- MRR — that subscription’s monthly recurring value.
- Risk — the 0 to 100 score and its band.
- Why — the specific signals that produced the score.
Use the Show filter above the table to narrow it to All, High, Medium or Low.
The signals and their weights
The weights are published deliberately: a score you can inspect is a score you can trust and argue with.
| Signal shown in Why | Points | When it applies |
|---|---|---|
| Cancellation already scheduled | 95 (fixed) | The subscription is pending cancellation. This is not a prediction — it has already happened. |
| Subscription on hold | 25 | The subscription status is on-hold, usually after a failed payment. |
| N failed renewal payments | 15 each, capped at 35 | A renewal payment failed within the last 90 days. |
| Payment overdue by N days | 20 | The scheduled payment date passed more than 3 days ago. The grace period stops a gateway retrying overnight from being flagged. |
| No successful renewal yet | 15 | The first renewal was due and never landed. |
| Still within its first billing cycle | 10 | Too early to have renewed yet — mild early-life risk. |
| Manual renewal, no saved payment method | 10 | The subscriber has to pay manually each cycle, which many never do. |
Tuning the weights
The weights can be adjusted for your store with the zorem_subs_churn_signal_weights filter, which receives an array of signal code to weight. Scores are recalculated on the next run.
When scores are calculated
- Nightly — every open subscription is rescored.
- Shortly after a state change — when a subscription goes on hold, a payment fails, or a cancellation is scheduled, that subscription is rescored without waiting for the next night.
- On demand — the Recalculate button at the top of the tab rescores everything immediately.
The first time you open the tab you will see No risk scores yet with a Calculate risk scores button. Click it rather than waiting for the nightly run.
Using the report
- Failed payments and overdue subscriptions are the most recoverable — a dunning email or a request to update the card often saves them.
- Manual-renewal subscribers are worth converting to automatic payment; that single change removes a standing 10-point risk.
- MRR at risk is the figure to take to a revenue meeting. It is the concrete cost of not acting.